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Technical Analysis, 17 June 2008 by Mizuho Corporate Bank

Tuesday, 17 June 2008 06:47 Forex Analysis

EUR/USD. Rallying to 1.5550, as expected, and more difficult as we trade close to the middle of the broad band that has held since March. Because the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ is thin we feel there is a good chance of a break higher, if not today then later this week, for a re-test of the 1.5800 resistance area.
Strategy:Attempt small longs at 1.5535, adding to 1.5475; stop below 1.5440. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5600 for 1.5700, maybe 1.5800.

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
1.5500	1.5544/1.5550*
1.5461*	1.5585/1.5600
1.5441	1.5630
1.5380	1.5650*
1.5345*	1.5700

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Technical Analysis, 12 June 2008 by Mizuho Corporate Bank

Thursday, 12 June 2008 07:45 Forex Analysis

EUR/USD. Inching below the thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’ by moving sideways across the page and too many appear confident that first support at the 1.5400 area will hold. We feel this is likely to break and our downside target will probably be 1.5100, but a cautious approach is warranted.
Strategy:Attempt tiny shorts at 1.5490 but be prepared to add to 1.5600; stop above 1.5700. Short term target 1.5400/1.5360.

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
1.5462/1.5441	1.5566
1.5410/1.5400*	1.5587
1.5360**	1.5629
1.5340	1.5655
1.5285*	1.5740

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Technical Analysis, 11 June 2008 by Mizuho Corporate Bank

Wednesday, 11 June 2008 06:55 Forex Analysis

EUR/USD. Implied volatility has bounced smartly as the Euro reverses recent gains. This suggests we will hold under 1.5800 this week and maybe for another two, leading to a concerted test of first support at the 1.5400 area. This is likely to break and our downside target will probably be 1.5100.
Strategy:Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 1.5490 but be prepared to add to 1.5655; stop above 1.5850. Short term target 1.5400/1.5360.

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
1.5441	1.5500
1.5410/1.5400*	1.5410/1.5400*
1.5360**	1.5629
1.5340	1.5655
1.5285*	1.5740

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Fundamental Analysis, 10 June 2008

Tuesday, 10 June 2008 07:29 Forex Analysis

Trade Balance

The Monthly Wholesale Trade Report is based on a monthly survey of about 4,500 wholesale merchants operating in the United States. The sample group is updated quarterly to reflect new businesses in the marketplace, and includes importers and exporters.

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Technical Analysis, 10 June 2008

Tuesday, 10 June 2008 07:20 Forex Analysis

EUR/USD. The profit taking wave affected the European currency big time, while the currency did not yet sabotage the upside shapes, it just looks a lot riskier now, as technical indicators are still pointing to the downside, and if the level 1.5520 gets breached and if the euro managed to close below it, that would probably generate another massive downside move. Target at 1.5950 is still intact yet we have to watch our from the 1.5520 level.
The trading range is among the key resistance level at 1.5720 and the key support level at 1.5520.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4260 remains intact; targets are set at 1.6080 and 1.6360.
Strategy:Buy Euro above 1.5560 with a target at 1.5665 and a stop loss below 1.5520

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
1.5580	1.5620
1.5555	1.5635
1.5535	1.5660
1.5520	1.5692
1.5490	1.5730

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The dollar collapsed on Friday

Tuesday, 10 June 2008 07:20 Forex Analysis

The dollar collapsed on Friday. Not only that the US unemployment figures were a(n apparent) disaster, but Israel warning to Iraq and EBS threat to hike rates all conspired to boost the oil and destroy the US currency. Monday should see some reprieve, by the outlook is negative.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar exploded higher on Friday and closed above the trendline of its channel declining since May 27. More general strength is likely. Initial resistance is at 1.5817. Above it, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5930. Further resistance is then seen at 1.6020. Immediate support is now seen at 1.5740. Strong support follows at 1.5650. The next level is 1.5565.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

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Currency Majors Technical Analysis, 10 June 2008 by Mataf.net

Tuesday, 10 June 2008 07:18 Forex Analysis

1,5616. EUR USD broke 1,5700 support. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is high. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in 1,5400 / 1,5850 range. We won't take a position.

Resistances

1,5700 - 1,5850

Supports

1,5575 - 1,5400

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USDCHF rebounded from 1.0147

Tuesday, 10 June 2008 07:17 Forex Analysis

USDCHF rebounded from 1.0147 and formed a short term cycle bottom on 4-hour chart. The rise from 1.0147 is treated as resumption of up trend. Further rally to test 1.0526 is now in favor. Key support is at 1.0147, only break below this level will pull price back to 1.0000 area.

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