EUR/USD. Implied volatility has bounced smartly as the Euro reverses recent gains. This suggests we will hold under 1.5800 this week and maybe for another two, leading to a concerted test of first support at the 1.5400 area. This is likely to break and our downside target will probably be 1.5100.
Strategy:Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 1.5490 but be prepared to add to 1.5655; stop above 1.5850. Short term target 1.5400/1.5360.
Strategy:Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 1.5490 but be prepared to add to 1.5655; stop above 1.5850. Short term target 1.5400/1.5360.
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.5441 | 1.5500 |
| 1.5410/1.5400* | 1.5410/1.5400* |
| 1.5360** | 1.5629 |
| 1.5340 | 1.5655 |
| 1.5285* | 1.5740 |
USD/JPY.Not going according to plan as we break above the weekly trendline and above the 61% retracement resistance. Surprisingly the US dollar is not overbought and futures positions are being slashed ahead of delivery. Few decent chart levels make trading this currency pair difficult. The rally since March is still seen as a correction to the long term trend which is for a weaker greenback. There is a possibility that European banks, desperate to get their hands on US dollar deposits, are creating these via Yen swaps because the money market has dried up completely.
Strategy:Do as little as possible. Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 107.70, adding to 108.35; stop above 108.75. Short term target 106.50.
Strategy:Do as little as possible. Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 107.70, adding to 108.35; stop above 108.75. Short term target 106.50.
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 107.40 | 107.76 |
| 107.00 | 107.90 |
| 106.40* | 108.35* |
| 106.00 | 108.70* |
| 105.65 | 109.00 |
GBP/USD. Rather frightening as we thrash around under trendline resistance. Expect more of the same today including a ‘spike’ below 1.9400 some time(s) this month.
Strategy:Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.9550; stop well below 1.9500. Short term target 1.9750.
Strategy:Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.9550; stop well below 1.9500. Short term target 1.9750.
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.9520 | 1.9610 |
| 1.9465/1.9450** | 1.9635 |
| 1.9400 | 1.9700 |
| 1.9360* | 1.9750 |
| 1.9337* | 1.9800* |
EUR/JPYTrading at some of the highest ever levels and no signs of topping yet. For today do as little as possible until some stability emerges in interest rates. We continue to watch for topping activity.
Strategy:Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 166.75; stop above 167.75. Short term target 165.50, then 165.00.
Strategy:Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 166.75; stop above 167.75. Short term target 165.50, then 165.00.
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 166.15 | 166.88 |
| 165.90 | 167.00 |
| 165.50 | 167.15* |
| 164.97* | 167.50 |
| 164.50 | 167.73* |
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.
Charts provided by Reuters.
Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott
The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.
Charts provided by Reuters.
Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott
